Sunday, June 21, 2009

New Release from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Here's what the Economist Intelligence Unit has to say about Vietnam:

Outlook for 2009-10
  • The ruling Communist Party of Vietnam will maintain its tight grip on power in 2009-10, rejecting calls (especially from groups of overseas Vietnamese) for political pluralism.
  • The government's fiscal stimulus package includes spending on infrastructure, as well as tax breaks and a delay in the implementation of the new personal income tax regime.
  • Given that the inflation rate is continuing to ease, the State Bank of Vietnam (the central bank) is likely to keep policy interest rates low in 2009-10.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.6% in 2009, before growth picks up to 4% in 2010. But concerns exist that official data will not reflect fully the extent to which the economy is suffering.
  • As domestic demand growth weakens, we expect price rises to continue to abate, and inflation is forecast to slow to an average of 5.4% in 2009.
  • We forecast that the value of the dong against the US dollar will fall by around 8% in nominal terms in 2009.
  • The current-account deficit will narrow sharply in 2009-10 as a result of a major reduction in the merchandise trade deficit.

Monthly review
  • A recent court case suggests that the government is increasingly intent on curbing unfair business practices that contravene the 2006 Competition Law.
  • From June 1st foreign investors will be allowed to acquire up to 49% of total equity in unlisted companies, up from 30% at present. The move brings the foreign-ownership cap into line with that for listed companies.
  • The government’s policy approach to boost economic growth will focus on supporting key sectors; stimulating investment; poverty reduction and social stability; and adopting a flexible approach to monetary and fiscal policy.
  • A study of two industrial zones by an international charity, Oxfam, showed that the global economic downturn has had a negative impact on business. Most firms conceded that production orders have fallen.
  • The trade balance swung into deficit in April. After posting three consecutive months of surpluses, the trade deficit soared to US$700m for the month.
  • Foreign direct investment inflows are down significantly. The government approved US$6.4bn in new projects the first four months of the year, down by over 72% year on year.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Poor Mexico

Lately, all I've been seeing is drug crime and swine flu. Considering I spent my entire senior year focused on people and money moving across the US - Mexico border, I feel a bit involved and attached to transborder flows of any sort, and I've got to say - it's never good news. No one ever talks about on the news, "Oh how great that we have a huge border with Mexico so that we can get easy access to inexpensive labor, fruit, and vacations." Pshaw.

On the issue of drug crime, I'd like to refer you all to the following article: Reflections from Latin America by Ibsen Martinez. He notes, as I have maintained, that the crackdown on drug imports from Colombia have led Mexico to be the new route into the US. The decreasing purity and increase in street price of cocaine in the US are also a side effect of this success. However, he also points out (which I did not know) about a potentially huge gun smuggling business from the US into Mexico. So perhaps increases in gun control in the US would be one policy to help our neighbor?

See an excerpt from the article below:

Mexico has quickly become the other epicenter of the violence activities carried out by criminal organizations associated with drug trafficking. Mexican drug cartels have come to supplant the Colombian traffickers as the main suppliers of illicit drugs to the U.S. market.

Mexico's attorney general reckons that U.S. consumers buy U.S. $10 billion worth of drugs from his country's cartels each year. All that money allows the two main cartels to arm, equip and pay for a highly motivated army of 100,000 that almost equals Mexico's armed forces in size and often outguns them.

"Americans are understandably focused on the flow of drugs and migrants into the U.S. from Mexico," says Andreas Peter, author ofBorder Games: Policing the U.S.-Mexico Divide. "But too often glossed over in the border security debate is the flow of weapons across the border into Mexico," he told FoxNews.com in a statement via the Internet.3 Mexican authorities say 90 percent of smuggled weapons come from the United States.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Visitors!

For those of you threatening to come my direction, can you stick your dates on here cuz I am rockin without any of this blackberry crap and I'm having a hard time keeping track of all the amazing jet setters I know...

Go here and put in some clues about when/where you'll be in Asia. I end my job contract officially on July 31, and at some point between now and then I'll be running a teambuilding workshop for my office. That's my only main reason I wouldn't be in Hanoi, unless I'm off with someone who is swinging through town.

View Katy's Whereabouts calendar

Friday, May 1, 2009

The Temples at Angkor Wat

I had one of my best days in Asia to date yesterday, bicycling around Angkor Wat.
 I was on my own, and on a bike rather than motoring around in tuk-tuk, so I really got to take my time, enjoy some beautiful weather, and chat up all the girls who were selling post cards and things. There are several who are incredibly bright and excellent salespeople - I was seriously impressed. These two, on the other hand, I think mostly traded on the cuteness factor



In and around Siem Reap, Cambodia are scattered a myriad of temples built by the different Khmer empires. At one point, the Khmer empire stretched all the way to the Pacific Ocean and into Thailand. The most famous of these temples are located near the heart of the empire at its apogee, which is at Angkor Wat. What most people think of as Angkor Wat are the temples that are inside the Archeological Wat Archeological Area, and include Angkor Wat itself, the Bayon, Ta Prohm and about a million other ruins large and small, in varying stages of restoration.

Angkor Wat itself was built in the mid 12th century by a fellow named Suryavarman II. It was originally Hindu, but as the state religion changed to Buddhism some of the Hindu imagery was destroyed or modified to fit the new times. These include immense bas-relief mural carvings of different Hindu myths, like the Churning of the Sea of Milk, and these apsaras (heavenly consorts).
Part of what makes it so spectacular is the massive moat that surrounds the complex.

Other very cool ruins include the Bayon, which is inside the Angkor Thom walled city and was used by a variety of kings. Each of them seems to have added bits and pieces so now it has quite a labarynthine feel, which is made even more bizarre by the fact that faces have been carved into the towers.


My personal favorites were Banteay Kdei and Ta Prohm, partly because I loved the look of the temples that have been left to be overgrown my trees. 


It was a full day, starting with a 4:30 AM wake up to bike out there for sunrise, and ending with a final half our biking in the pouring rain at 7:30 pm, which was hilarious. It was well worth it to see the bolts of lightening frame the spires of Angkor before I left. It started lightening while I was sitting with a little girl who was chatting me up and sharing some of her fruit. Her English was incredible - you don't get kids who speak English like that in Vietnam really, unless they have family in the USA. So very full, and very, very nice. If anyone is going to Angkor any time soon I definitely recommend bicycle! It made the trip (thanks to Adam Flynn for the advice).


If you really want a personal view, check out these videos:






Saturday, April 25, 2009

Wee life updates...

Mom has been visiting, and we are now in Can Tho where we spent the morning at the floating market on the Mekong River and touring an orchard. I also realized my phone is web enabled, at least today, so I sent some people an email while eating one of the best mangoes I've ever had - if you got that.

Mom and I had coffee with the other PiAers, Julia and Alice, who are just finishing their year teaching at the university here. Tomorrow it's back to HCMC so Mom can catch her flight, and then I head to Phnom Penh for work and following that to Siem Reap. There I'll be doing a helmet training session, doing some work with the local schools, and also seeing the famous Angkor Watt temples! I'm pretty excited.

Back to Hanoi after an action packed month (I haven't been at my house for a weekend in 5 consecutive weeks), where I'll settle down to finish this project for work and gear up for the performance of our play in early June!

Next big adventures will be figuring out how to take the GRE this summer - probably in Singapore - and maybe organizing for a few more visits, wink wink.

Cheers from the Mekong Delta!

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Photos From Mai Chau

From Mai Chau and Hoi An






Mai Chau is about 4 hours west, and a little south, of Hanoi. It is a low-lying area where mostly the White Thai ethnic people live.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Trials and Tribulations

Vietnam has an interesting sense of history - something I am thinking about today as John McCain is revisiting this city where he was held in prison, now advocating human rights and economic reforms. Two other news stories have touched on this recently: the trial of Alberto Fujimori in Peru and the tribunals of Khmer Rouge leaders in Cambodia.

Briefly, the Khmer Rouge was a communist group which came to power in Cambodia. Under its leader Pol Pot, Cambodia was ruled brutally, with a number close to 1.5 million people killed in only a four year time span. No one knows for sure. Of interest now is the way that Cambodia is dealing with that history. The country is incredibly young - over 70% of the 14 million Cambodians are under the age of 30. In fact, 1/3 of the country is under the age of 14. The people who lived through the Khmer Rouge are a small fraction of the population now, and their stories seem far-fetched to the country's young population. It is an interesting question of how you deal with history - do you try to steep these young children in an awareness of the country's past? The reasons that the fields around their homes are riddled with bones? Or do you bury the past and simply wait for the generation of people who lived through it to die?

On a similar note, Alberto Fujimori - former president of Peru - was sentenced to 25 years in prison on charges of murder, agravated kidnapping, and crimes against humanity. Fujimori was president of Peru during the years when the Sendero Luminoso ("Shining Path") wrecked havoc in the southern countryside. The Maoist group spread through university students who became rural teachers, started by Abimael Guzman in Ayacucho during the 1960's. It turned violent in the 1980's and continued into the 1990's. Fujimori was president from 1990-2000, ruling over the final government attempts to put down the insurgency. After his government collapsed, a Truth and Reconciliation Commission investigated the crimes committed during the period, finding a death toll of close to 70,000 people. About half of those were due to the Sendero Luminoso; the government and a few other factions were accountable for the remainder. Fujimori's explanation for the crimes committed under his goverment: “I had to govern from hell,” he said. “That is why I am being judged.”

A variety of mechanisms have been employed to hold leaders accountable for actions taken during their regimes. These mechanisms include national or UN-backed Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (eg. South Africa, Argentina, Chile, Peru, East Timor, Rwanda); national trials within the judicial system (such as Fujimori's or the one intended for Chilean leader Augosto Pinochet; nationally-run but specially formed tribunals (like the one that condemned Saddam Hussein); special international tribunals (like those for Rwandan and Yugoslavian leaders); and the international criminal court (which indited Al-Bashir). Each of these carries carefully nuanced implications. Nonetheless, in absolute terms the number of leaders who have been held accountable post-mortem; while they are still alive; or while they are still in 'office' has grown steadily. If this implies an increasingly credible commitment to holding individuals and regimes responsible for the human rights abuses committed under their watch, then what are the implications? (And, in particular, will the international community ever be able to hold accountable the leader of a G8/NATO/'powerful' country - as some have demanded Kissinger or Nixon be? What would be the implications if that were to happen?)

In this context, the question that a variety of political theorists are trying to answer is whether or not the commitments to try leaders for criminal acts will be credible enough to impact those decisions in the first place. Will these tribunals serve as a deterrent? Are they a part of the process of healing for those who lived through a brutal reign? Or is it a way of reconciling honestly with the past in order to prevent similar acts from occurring in the future?

Cambodia and Peru offer different visions of how holding leaders accountable can play out. Cambodia's population seems broadly unaware of the trials of the Khmer Rouge leaders, according to the Berkeley survey cited in the NY Times. Meanwhile, in Peru, Fujimori's daughter is a senator running for President in the next elections, with the promise that if elected she will pardon her father. His supporters were demonstrating in the streets at news of his conviction. Lessons can be found from other countries as to what the long-term implications of these events will be, yet I hesitate to make too many generalizations based on any one country's experience. Grappling with the past, with the symbolism of 'mythic' leaders, and with the shape and form of justice - these will vary across time and place.

For example, at this point in time, I cannot imagine Vietnam holding a Truth and Reconciliation Commission or a trial for crimes committed during either the Vietnam war or the more brutal era of communism post-war - only partly because the party is still in power. I don't know what it would accomplish to do so. This reveals to me that I ethically judge these trials on the utility they provide to those alive/unborn, as opposed to seeing the procedure as being necessary because it, in itself, is right/ethical. I have not fully reconciled myself to the implications of that sentiment, the contradictions it implies, or the inconsistencies in legal and political policy that it would require. Fortunately, there are a great number of very intelligent people writing about theories of international justice and mechanisms for achieving it, so at least there's help to arrive at some conclusions...