Examining the world through randomized control trials, Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee's new book summarizes findings on what works, and what really might not, in development policy and practice.
The book's conclusions are based on two premises. First, use data to try and understand the real drivers of behaviors like school attendance and condom use. Second, assume the "poor" are making choices that are just as rational or irrational as anyone else - just that they have different information and constraints. If it isn't clear what those choices are or why they'd be made, keep looking.
The true excitement of the book bubbles from the small diamonds of insight that could dramatically affect human development outcomes (on either a micro or macro scale).
For example, in certain countries, could providing free school uniforms be a key to reducing teen pregnancy and HIV infection rates in teen girls?
Could be.
Check it out. http://pooreconomics.com/
Then check out some criticism on Chris Blattman's blog here.
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Myanmar Minutea
Here's an informational look into my recent trip to Burma
Some History
The country was ruled by a monarchy based in Mandalay before the British took over from 1824-1886 and made it part of the Indian territory (it was later a separate administrative area). The country became independent in 1948, following WWII, and didn't join the British Commonwealth. General Ne Win took over via military coup in 1962.
Some Econ
The country's primary interest to the British was teak, which was logged in vast quantities and continues to be a main export - though forests are nearly depleted.
Some Religion
The country is primarily Mahayana Buddhist, with some Hindu, Muslim and Christian minorities.
It still retains a significant ethnic 'hill tribe' population, mostly in the north and border regions it seems. There are some 70 plus different ethnic groups recognized by the government.
Urbanization & Infrastructure
The country's 40 or so million are relatively urbanized, with about 6 million living in the former capital Yangon and a comparable number in Mandalay. Infrastructure is poor - major highways are 1.5 lanes and not always sealed. We observed quite a bit of road improvement over our 6 hour drive from Bagan to Kalaw. It was almost all being done by hand, and by women. They were laying rock and mixing/heating asphalt in drums b the side of the road. Once in a while there was the odd Komatsu bit of machinery rolling it down. The road was originally constructed by the government, but has since been 'privatized' and we paid tolls for road maintenance several times on our journey.
The rail infrastructure dates to the British, with many trains as slow as 15 km/hour. Large bed trucks transport goods and people - likely of Chinese origin, though we saw some that had been built by hand of wood and homemade engines. Air travel routes have been increasingly developed but are dramatically unaffordable. It's clear that it is hard to move goods in and out: air strips seem unlikely to be able to handle large aircraft form modern fleets - so things would have to be flown somewhere else then transferred to smaller planes.
Connections to the World
People here aren't cut off from the outside world. English is taught in schools from primary school, and there was a surprisingly high level of English. That bodes very well for their future economic development.
Foreign products are available - we see Nivea, Coca-Cola and apparently also European pharmaceuticals. Chinese products are plentiful - plastic goods etc. Motorbikes are increasing outside Yangon, where they're banned. A Chinese motorbike runs $300, and over 5,000 are smuggled into the country a day. Cars cost thousands of dollars to register and motorbikes cost significantly less.
Satellite TV is available (after a hefty government tax) and Korean popstars are visible all over. Imitation hairstyles have ensued. At two weddings, photos of Korean pop stars were decorating the festivities. (Look at top left in this photo).
Internet penetration appears to be advancing. Though there are blocks on sites like cnn.com and bbc.com, we have been able to find internet for as little as $0.40 in Yangon and it's relatively fast.
Cell phones are more of a luxury item. The cost of the phone is low, but to get a number you have to pay the government around $2,000. This ensures very few people have their own phone numbers. You can also buy a sim card that gives 1 hour of talk time and expires after 1 month.
Today
When people say that Burma is 'unspoilt', I think it most aptly refers to the disposition of the people towards travelers. I see why they would be compared to Thais 40 years ago. The warmth and friendliness - and curiosity! They're not jaded or interested only in the business of tourism.
There are elections approaching. One person said, "We will all vote, because if you don't you're in trouble. But nothing will change; we know the outcome already." However, another remarked these elections were very important, because the military wasn't allowed to run, and they'd have civilians - though generals can conveniently retire just before elections to run as civilians.
Some History
The country was ruled by a monarchy based in Mandalay before the British took over from 1824-1886 and made it part of the Indian territory (it was later a separate administrative area). The country became independent in 1948, following WWII, and didn't join the British Commonwealth. General Ne Win took over via military coup in 1962.
Some Econ
The country's primary interest to the British was teak, which was logged in vast quantities and continues to be a main export - though forests are nearly depleted.
Some Religion
The country is primarily Mahayana Buddhist, with some Hindu, Muslim and Christian minorities.
It still retains a significant ethnic 'hill tribe' population, mostly in the north and border regions it seems. There are some 70 plus different ethnic groups recognized by the government.
Urbanization & Infrastructure
The country's 40 or so million are relatively urbanized, with about 6 million living in the former capital Yangon and a comparable number in Mandalay. Infrastructure is poor - major highways are 1.5 lanes and not always sealed. We observed quite a bit of road improvement over our 6 hour drive from Bagan to Kalaw. It was almost all being done by hand, and by women. They were laying rock and mixing/heating asphalt in drums b the side of the road. Once in a while there was the odd Komatsu bit of machinery rolling it down. The road was originally constructed by the government, but has since been 'privatized' and we paid tolls for road maintenance several times on our journey.
The rail infrastructure dates to the British, with many trains as slow as 15 km/hour. Large bed trucks transport goods and people - likely of Chinese origin, though we saw some that had been built by hand of wood and homemade engines. Air travel routes have been increasingly developed but are dramatically unaffordable. It's clear that it is hard to move goods in and out: air strips seem unlikely to be able to handle large aircraft form modern fleets - so things would have to be flown somewhere else then transferred to smaller planes.
Connections to the World
People here aren't cut off from the outside world. English is taught in schools from primary school, and there was a surprisingly high level of English. That bodes very well for their future economic development.
Foreign products are available - we see Nivea, Coca-Cola and apparently also European pharmaceuticals. Chinese products are plentiful - plastic goods etc. Motorbikes are increasing outside Yangon, where they're banned. A Chinese motorbike runs $300, and over 5,000 are smuggled into the country a day. Cars cost thousands of dollars to register and motorbikes cost significantly less.
Satellite TV is available (after a hefty government tax) and Korean popstars are visible all over. Imitation hairstyles have ensued. At two weddings, photos of Korean pop stars were decorating the festivities. (Look at top left in this photo).
Internet penetration appears to be advancing. Though there are blocks on sites like cnn.com and bbc.com, we have been able to find internet for as little as $0.40 in Yangon and it's relatively fast.
Cell phones are more of a luxury item. The cost of the phone is low, but to get a number you have to pay the government around $2,000. This ensures very few people have their own phone numbers. You can also buy a sim card that gives 1 hour of talk time and expires after 1 month.
Today
When people say that Burma is 'unspoilt', I think it most aptly refers to the disposition of the people towards travelers. I see why they would be compared to Thais 40 years ago. The warmth and friendliness - and curiosity! They're not jaded or interested only in the business of tourism.
There are elections approaching. One person said, "We will all vote, because if you don't you're in trouble. But nothing will change; we know the outcome already." However, another remarked these elections were very important, because the military wasn't allowed to run, and they'd have civilians - though generals can conveniently retire just before elections to run as civilians.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Vietnam is considering raising the poverty line
In rural areas, the current poverty line is 200,000 vnd/person per month.
That is $11.11 per month.
The new definition would raise that to $19, which will double the number of poor.
That is $11.11 per month.
The new definition would raise that to $19, which will double the number of poor.
25-07-2009
The Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs proposed raising the official poverty line to twice its former level. The move would mean those living in rural areas who earn VND 350,000 (US$19) or less a month or those living in urgan areas who earn VND 450,000 ($25) or less will be considered poor. (The existing poverty line is VND 200,000 per person per month in the countryside and VND 260,000 for those living in urban areas, respectively.) The new standard means that the number of households living in poverty would rise from 13% to 20%...
http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showarticle.php?num=07SOC250709
In a country where you can earn $25+ per hour teaching English with no previous certification.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
New Release from the Economist Intelligence Unit
Here's what the Economist Intelligence Unit has to say about Vietnam:
Outlook for 2009-10
Monthly review
Outlook for 2009-10
- The ruling Communist Party of Vietnam will maintain its tight grip on power in 2009-10, rejecting calls (especially from groups of overseas Vietnamese) for political pluralism.
- The government's fiscal stimulus package includes spending on infrastructure, as well as tax breaks and a delay in the implementation of the new personal income tax regime.
- Given that the inflation rate is continuing to ease, the State Bank of Vietnam (the central bank) is likely to keep policy interest rates low in 2009-10.
- The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will expand by 1.6% in 2009, before growth picks up to 4% in 2010. But concerns exist that official data will not reflect fully the extent to which the economy is suffering.
- As domestic demand growth weakens, we expect price rises to continue to abate, and inflation is forecast to slow to an average of 5.4% in 2009.
- We forecast that the value of the dong against the US dollar will fall by around 8% in nominal terms in 2009.
- The current-account deficit will narrow sharply in 2009-10 as a result of a major reduction in the merchandise trade deficit.
Monthly review
- A recent court case suggests that the government is increasingly intent on curbing unfair business practices that contravene the 2006 Competition Law.
- From June 1st foreign investors will be allowed to acquire up to 49% of total equity in unlisted companies, up from 30% at present. The move brings the foreign-ownership cap into line with that for listed companies.
- The government’s policy approach to boost economic growth will focus on supporting key sectors; stimulating investment; poverty reduction and social stability; and adopting a flexible approach to monetary and fiscal policy.
- A study of two industrial zones by an international charity, Oxfam, showed that the global economic downturn has had a negative impact on business. Most firms conceded that production orders have fallen.
- The trade balance swung into deficit in April. After posting three consecutive months of surpluses, the trade deficit soared to US$700m for the month.
- Foreign direct investment inflows are down significantly. The government approved US$6.4bn in new projects the first four months of the year, down by over 72% year on year.
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